[tomder55]

the Defcon 3 light has been flashing on the Iran matters for about 3 years and more. You and I thought Bush might clean that up before he left as I recall. Is there something going on possibly that israel has a date in mind and O. is trying to talk them out of it, causing the real riff? I pray that something is in the works. Iran can muster 3,000,000 troops according to a military site I was looking at. Or does O. think the esteem tour will make it all better?

https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/curren...-487991-3.html

The military option was on the table towards the end of the Bush 2nd term .
Here is what happened . There was momentum towards the military option because of a number of factors related to direct Qod and IRGC actions against our troops in Iraq ,and the general understanding that the Iranians were close to achieving sufficient enrichment of their uranium to make the breakthrough necessary to produce nuclear bomb grade material .

President Bush met with the Joint Chiefs of Staff towards the end of 2006 ,and asked them about an air strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities .They voiced concerns that it wouldn't be 100% effective because the Iranians had spread their research out and had not concentrated it in one building ,that some of the cites were buried deep in mountainous caves ,and in highly populated areas . Sec Defense for Bush and currently for Obama Robert Gates advised against it.

Still the question of what to do about the Iranian program was on the table.Everything indicated they were making great strides and estimates although varied ,indicated it would not be long before a deadline date on a decision approached .

Then in December 2007 ,a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE ) was published which stated that the composite consensus of the American Intelligence community was that Iran had abandoned it's nuclear weapon program and had done so in 2003.
https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/curren...am-159069.html

The NY Slimes wrote that “[rarely], if ever, has a single intelligence report so completely, so suddenly, and so surprisingly altered a foreign policy debate here.” .

The report did not make sense to me then and I thought at the time (and still do ) that there were lifetime bureaucrats in the intelligence communities that were trying to shape the direction of the US foreign policy... that if any politicization of intelligence was happening it was there and not in the White House .
This NIE undercut the Bush adm. Efforts to ratchet up the pressure on the homicidal ,delusional ,messianic running Iran ,to prevent them from developing a nuclear arms program. Bush critics used the report as proof that the Bush foreign policy was driven by a hardline ideology that ignored the best estimates of the intelligence community .

Not only did this put a stop to any talk of attack. It also derailed any effort to diplomatically isolate Iran by the US ,by the EU3 ,by the UN.. or pass any meaningful sanctions against them .Iran had a free ride until the end of the Bush term .

My suspicions were pretty much proven accurate after President Obama was sworn it. Suddenly the intelligence community reversed the 2007 NIE and said... oh yeah ,Iran's been building a nuclear program all along... did we forget to tell you ?
U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb - Los Angeles Times

Little more than a year after U.S. spy agencies concluded that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapon, the Obama administration has made it clear that it believes there is no question that Tehran is seeking the bomb.

In his news conference this week, President Obama went so far as to describe Iran's “development of a nuclear weapon” before correcting himself to refer to its “pursuit” of weapons capability.

Obama's nominee to serve as CIA director, Leon E. Panetta, left little doubt about his view last week when he testified on Capitol Hill. “From all the information I've seen” Panetta said, “I think there is no question that they are seeking that capability.”

The language reflects the extent to which senior U.S. officials now discount a National Intelligence Estimate issued in November 2007 that was instrumental in derailing U.S. and European efforts to pressure Iran to shut down its nuclear program.

Iran again was a dangerous country ,and not some peaceful country caught in a security situation that we created .

Robert Gates speaks now like he has seen the light.
"I don't think we're prepared to even talk about containing a nuclear Iran,"..... "We do not accept the idea of Iran having nuclear weapons." And he seems to represent the sentiment of the military establishment. What was not possible in the Bush years is now possible.
And word is that plans are being developed in coordination with Israel... and with many of the Sunni Arab nations .
The UAE's ambassador to the US, said that his country "cannot live with a nuclear Iran", and it has been reported that the Saudi's have given the Israeli's overflight permission in the event of an attack.

Congress suddenly voted overwhelmingly to approve sanctions against Iran .The President signed them July 1. The UN passed a version also.
When asked if the sanctions would be effective ,CIA boss Leon Panetta said "probably not" .

Internally Iran is a mess. We recently passed the one year anniversary of the beginning of the 'Green Revolution' . The Obama adm. Chose to sit on the sidelines which I consider a blunder .I do not believe it would've taken much of a push to topple the current regime ;now led exclusively by the Mahdi-hatter ,and the IRGC (the mullahs have been put out to pasture for all practical purposes since the Mahdi -hatter stole the election).The courageous folks were beaten down in the first round .But the revolutions has not gone away.

There is a general merchant strike ongoing which the regime is trying to brutally put down (knives being the weapon of choice by the goons ). This indicates that the revolution ,once the effort of the university student and more progressive moderate youths has spread to the middle class.

And there is unrest by the country's minority groups which led to a suicide bombing of a mosque this week.

Meanwhile it appears the Mahdi--hatter is preparing his flunkies in Lebanon and elsewhere for a showdown.
US commanders in Iraq warned this week that Kataib Hezbollah, financed and trained by IRGC, has sent fighters into Iraq to launch attacks coinciding with imminent US troop withdrawals. In Afghanistan, coalition forces continue to find evidence of Iranian support for the Taliban and AQ linked warlords.Hezbollah is rearmed under the nose of the UN aided by Syria, which is smuggling advanced missiles from Iran. Hezbollah now has 40,000 short and medium-range rockets and 20,000 fighters despite UN resolution 1701 ,and the presence of UNIFIL peace-keepers . I do not know if they will attack Israel 1st ;or be held in reserve until an attack on Iran is commenced.

I just don't know where the President will go with this .We returned a spy ,or a double ,or triple agent to Iran this week who probably fed us false information about the Iranian program. To my knowege we got nothing in return... not even the US student hikers who had strayed into Iranian territory . My own belief is that the President feels all these foreign policy issues he has to deal with distracts him from his true love... radically transforming the US into his vision of utopia. Everything tells me there will be something big happening . But it will be Iran that makes the 1st move.

[excon]

I just don't know where the President will go with this .

Hello tom:

I don't disagree. What would YOU advise him to do?

I think we're in big trouble too, although I doubt you'd agree with me as to WHY. Yup, it's Bush's fault... To sum it up, if Iraq caused Bush to take his eyes OFF Afghanistan, and it DID, then Iraq AND Afghanistan caused us to take our eyes OFF Iran.

I guess I don't have to mention, that not only did Saddam NOT have WMD's, but he had a BIG freaking army who HATED the Iranians, and surly would have been our ally once again.

Were that so, OUR army would be rested and ready. So would Saddam's. But, it ain't so. Instead of being ready to fight, we're worn out and war weary! Yup. Bush was the worst president in the history of this great country of ours. He may have lost it...

Is it true that Iran has 3,000,000 boots on the ground? Dude!

excon

[tomder55]

Is it true that Iran has 3,000,000 boots on the ground? Dude!

I did not confirm the size of the Iranian forces.That was smearcase's comment .

To sum it up, if Iraq caused Bush to take his eyes OFF Afghanistan, and it DID, then Iraq AND Afghanistan caused us to take our eyes OFF Iran.

Did you not read what I wrote ? In no way did Bush take his eyes off Iran. He listened to his military advisors and the "best intelligence available " just like in Iraq. Iran was a nation he identified early as a threat .

I don't think their ground forces relevant beyond the IRGC . Their littoral navy can be tricky . I'm sure you've seen them exercise with speed boats ,and their air defenses have been upgraded by the Ruskies . But generally their Army wouldn't be a factor in any action the US might take. Our Navy is well rested and I estimate no more than 2 or 3 carrier task forces would do the trick .

I guess I don't have to mention, that not only did Saddam NOT have WMD's, but he had a BIG freaking army who HATED the Iranians

Saddam's Army quit being a deterent or a balance of power against Iran after 1990 .By your logic we erred in defending Kuwait and defeating the Iraqi Army in 1990 because we broke the balance of power between Iraq and Iran.

Didn't you hear the updated talking points about why all the Dems thought he had WMD also . The new line of BS is that Saddam never really had them .But he pretended to have them because he believed that if he did not let the world believe he had them ;then the Iranians would attack him and his weakened army . You really have to update those talking points.

But he did retain WMD and the infrastructure to build more . The sanction regime was collapsing ,thanks to the violations of UN resolutions by the nations that most opposed the invasion .
The ONLY reason UN inspectors were in Iraq at all was because of US military pressure .

So let's see . You say the invasion was wrong ;and you argue on another posting that our presence there enforcing UN resolutions was also wrong because our presence there was a justification for OBL's attacks on us .Was the liberation of Kuwait wrong?

[tomder55]

YouTube - Only Israel - by Yedida Freilich

[Kitkat22]

Exy... you're right! Okay I'm unsubscribing now. Thanks Tom.

[Catsmine]

Yup, it's Bush's fault....

Again, you don't look back far enough. The Peanut Man let these people's fathers get away with committing an act of war against us and we've been playing catch up ever since. Thank you, Mr. Carter. Hope that Nobel Cowardice Prize is a comfort.

[smearcase]

3,6075,000 comes from site below.
3,000,000 are paramilitary civilian force-how effective I don't know.

Tom, that's a great analysis and I won't pretend I digested it all.

Why don't we go after their infrastructure and set bomb making back about 50 years. No nukes involved. I may be naïve but I think we have the air power and sea power to make life very difficult for as long as we want. I was in the Navy so I think of the Navy first but I was about 15 paygrades below the guys that make these decisions.

We certainly couldn't leave the bulk of our military, 250K troops in strike distance of Iran nukes. But , the CIC has to give the go and killing muslims is not his cup of tea. Promoting them into Homeland Security is more his baliwick.Obama ‘Reaches Out’ by Naming ‘Devout’ Muslims to Security Posts - Defense/Middle East - Israel News - Israel National News
There are many sites carrying this news.

I truly believe that if Iran gets nukes, the world will never be the same. Trust your government to act?

List of countries by number of troops - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[tomder55]

The number in the military is not really relevant . Just like Saddam's draftees they will not be a significant factor . The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) is the military wing to be concerned with .

I think to degrade their nuke infrastructure would require a series of strikes . This isn't like the Israeli strike on Iraq's Osirak facility .They have dispersed their program in hardened facilities and in populated areas .

The good news is that with Congressional prompting the US position has toughened . This in turn is convincing the Europeans to adopt similar sanctions.
AFP: EU envoys endorse sanctions against Iran

But conversly ,the Russians continue to take actions that weaken an attempt to isolate Iran. They are simultaniously supporting the Iranian regime ,and using the prospect of sanction support as a bargaining chip against the US .
The Russian Energy Minister, Sergei Shmatko,pretty much said that they don't recognize sanctions that aren't initiated by the UNSC ,and that “the advancement of cooperation between Russia and Iran does not contravene the UN Security Council sanctions” .

That "advancement " is in the energy sector which is not surprisingly one of the sectors that the US sanctions address... hence the leverage .
Even with the UN sanctions ,that Russia was successful in watering down, the Russians will find ways to get around them . They may upgrade the Iranian air defenses because they see ambiguity in the status of the S-300 system ,or just dangle the threat of the sale to extract further concessions from the West. They will do the same with the oil and gas sector rendering the whole business irrelevant.
I could make similar arguments about the Chinese /Iran relationship.

Hard to take Evita seriously then when she proclaims that Iran is isolated .

[smearcase]

The only things that matter to me are when will the nukes be ready, what is our plan to neutralize the program, and who is going to carry it out. Sanctions and anything else from this congress are like putting a bandaid on your nose right before somebody smacks it with a baseball bat. If they can develop the nuclear capability during the sanction time, it doesn't mean diddly.
A sustained program of destroying roads, bridges, water, sewer, admin. Buildings will bring the program to a snail's pace. Their nukes don't mean anything until they have something to launch. Conventional means will do just fine assuming we have the right stuff (big assumption). The number of troops does matter. The number I quoted is quite a figure. I'll try that again--3,675,000 with 3,000,000 of those being "paramilitary". That leaves 675,000 which will become extremely significant in that we can't even think of going in with our ground troops. The only way we could muster 1,000,000 ground troops is the same way Sadaam did it, and the American muslim regime would never go for it anyhow.
We don't know when the Iran nuke will be ready. If we have grounds for sanctions we have grounds to issue a cease and desist order on further development, now. If we are afraid of reaction from other countries, plan are staying afraid for a long, long time to come. Give the military the "conn" and let them worry about the details. They are trained for it and they have the expertise to carry it out. I know Barry will have to study it for a few years first, everything I said is moot and Israel is the only hope and they can make a big display but they can't take on a country of 72,000,000 people with a sophisticated military. Maybe we will be shamed into helping Israel once they show their cards and they will.

[paraclete]

Now here's a tail twister, Iran is going to do fusion research, taking up from where they left off thirty years ago? Somehow I can help thinking someone is delusional, but maybe it takes the single mindedness of Ahmamadjihad to get the job done, publish a fatwah and have a jihad on fusion, two years research and ten years to build the reactor, quess we won't be hearing anything any time soon excepting more sanctions
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=223584
Could we hope they might blow themselves up in the process?

[tomder55]

I think cold fusion research in the hand of the Iranians is like the search for a perpetual motion machine ,or perhaps alchemy. Come to think of it ;al-kimia may have been one of those Islamic contributions to science the President wants to tout.

[speechlesstx]

I don't know about any of that, but the whack job has gone too far now, he's attacked Paul The Octopus.

[tomder55]

Paul the Psychic Octopus ? So that's how the Mahdi-hatter knows we will attack 2 nations in the ME soon!
Ahmadinejad says expects U.S. to attack MidEast soon - Yahoo! News