https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/curren...-487991-3.htmlQuote:
the Defcon 3 light has been flashing on the Iran matters for about 3 years and more. You and I thought Bush might clean that up before he left as I recall. Is there something going on possibly that israel has a date in mind and O. is trying to talk them out of it, causing the real riff? I pray that something is in the works. Iran can muster 3,000,000 troops according to a military site I was looking at. Or does O. think the esteem tour will make it all better?
The military option was on the table towards the end of the Bush 2nd term .
Here is what happened . There was momentum towards the military option because of a number of factors related to direct Qod and IRGC actions against our troops in Iraq ,and the general understanding that the Iranians were close to achieving sufficient enrichment of their uranium to make the breakthrough necessary to produce nuclear bomb grade material .
President Bush met with the Joint Chiefs of Staff towards the end of 2006 ,and asked them about an air strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities .They voiced concerns that it wouldn't be 100% effective because the Iranians had spread their research out and had not concentrated it in one building ,that some of the cites were buried deep in mountainous caves ,and in highly populated areas . Sec Defense for Bush and currently for Obama Robert Gates advised against it.
Still the question of what to do about the Iranian program was on the table.Everything indicated they were making great strides and estimates although varied ,indicated it would not be long before a deadline date on a decision approached .
Then in December 2007 ,a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE ) was published which stated that the composite consensus of the American Intelligence community was that Iran had abandoned it's nuclear weapon program and had done so in 2003.
https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/curren...am-159069.html
The NY Slimes wrote that “[rarely], if ever, has a single intelligence report so completely, so suddenly, and so surprisingly altered a foreign policy debate here.” .
The report did not make sense to me then and I thought at the time (and still do ) that there were lifetime bureaucrats in the intelligence communities that were trying to shape the direction of the US foreign policy... that if any politicization of intelligence was happening it was there and not in the White House .
This NIE undercut the Bush adm. Efforts to ratchet up the pressure on the homicidal ,delusional ,messianic running Iran ,to prevent them from developing a nuclear arms program. Bush critics used the report as proof that the Bush foreign policy was driven by a hardline ideology that ignored the best estimates of the intelligence community .
Not only did this put a stop to any talk of attack. It also derailed any effort to diplomatically isolate Iran by the US ,by the EU3 ,by the UN.. or pass any meaningful sanctions against them .Iran had a free ride until the end of the Bush term .
My suspicions were pretty much proven accurate after President Obama was sworn it. Suddenly the intelligence community reversed the 2007 NIE and said... oh yeah ,Iran's been building a nuclear program all along... did we forget to tell you ?
U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb - Los Angeles Times
Iran again was a dangerous country ,and not some peaceful country caught in a security situation that we created .Quote:
Little more than a year after U.S. spy agencies concluded that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapon, the Obama administration has made it clear that it believes there is no question that Tehran is seeking the bomb.
In his news conference this week, President Obama went so far as to describe Iran's “development of a nuclear weapon” before correcting himself to refer to its “pursuit” of weapons capability.
Obama's nominee to serve as CIA director, Leon E. Panetta, left little doubt about his view last week when he testified on Capitol Hill. “From all the information I've seen” Panetta said, “I think there is no question that they are seeking that capability.”
The language reflects the extent to which senior U.S. officials now discount a National Intelligence Estimate issued in November 2007 that was instrumental in derailing U.S. and European efforts to pressure Iran to shut down its nuclear program.
Robert Gates speaks now like he has seen the light.
"I don't think we're prepared to even talk about containing a nuclear Iran,"..... "We do not accept the idea of Iran having nuclear weapons." And he seems to represent the sentiment of the military establishment. What was not possible in the Bush years is now possible.
And word is that plans are being developed in coordination with Israel... and with many of the Sunni Arab nations .
The UAE's ambassador to the US, said that his country "cannot live with a nuclear Iran", and it has been reported that the Saudi's have given the Israeli's overflight permission in the event of an attack.
Congress suddenly voted overwhelmingly to approve sanctions against Iran .The President signed them July 1. The UN passed a version also.
When asked if the sanctions would be effective ,CIA boss Leon Panetta said "probably not" .
Internally Iran is a mess. We recently passed the one year anniversary of the beginning of the 'Green Revolution' . The Obama adm. Chose to sit on the sidelines which I consider a blunder .I do not believe it would've taken much of a push to topple the current regime ;now led exclusively by the Mahdi-hatter ,and the IRGC (the mullahs have been put out to pasture for all practical purposes since the Mahdi -hatter stole the election).The courageous folks were beaten down in the first round .But the revolutions has not gone away.
There is a general merchant strike ongoing which the regime is trying to brutally put down (knives being the weapon of choice by the goons ). This indicates that the revolution ,once the effort of the university student and more progressive moderate youths has spread to the middle class.
And there is unrest by the country's minority groups which led to a suicide bombing of a mosque this week.
Meanwhile it appears the Mahdi--hatter is preparing his flunkies in Lebanon and elsewhere for a showdown.
US commanders in Iraq warned this week that Kataib Hezbollah, financed and trained by IRGC, has sent fighters into Iraq to launch attacks coinciding with imminent US troop withdrawals. In Afghanistan, coalition forces continue to find evidence of Iranian support for the Taliban and AQ linked warlords.Hezbollah is rearmed under the nose of the UN aided by Syria, which is smuggling advanced missiles from Iran. Hezbollah now has 40,000 short and medium-range rockets and 20,000 fighters despite UN resolution 1701 ,and the presence of UNIFIL peace-keepers . I do not know if they will attack Israel 1st ;or be held in reserve until an attack on Iran is commenced.
I just don't know where the President will go with this .We returned a spy ,or a double ,or triple agent to Iran this week who probably fed us false information about the Iranian program. To my knowege we got nothing in return... not even the US student hikers who had strayed into Iranian territory . My own belief is that the President feels all these foreign policy issues he has to deal with distracts him from his true love... radically transforming the US into his vision of utopia. Everything tells me there will be something big happening . But it will be Iran that makes the 1st move.