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    KingsX's Avatar
    KingsX Posts: 231, Reputation: 10
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    #1

    Jun 8, 2010, 11:43 AM
    calculating odds using points
    I'm starting a little friendly fifa world cup pool on Facebook with my friends (no money), and I would like to calculate the odds of team A beating team B using their Fifa points standings only. So basically lets say I choose team A and my buddy chooses team B. And team A has 1200 points and team B has 1000. What are the odds that team A will win etc.

    I've tried to look up how to calculate odds on matches, and the math covers way more than what I'm looking for. In wikipedia, it uses an example of the odds that any random day would be Sunday. They use, this formula 1-p/p, where p is the probability of an event. But that's the trouble I'm having, I don't know how to calculate the probability of either team winning, using their points standings. Maybe its not even odds I'm after, just probability. I'm not really sure. Any advice?
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    KingsX Posts: 231, Reputation: 10
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    #2

    Jun 8, 2010, 11:45 AM

    Is it as simple as dividing the two numbers? For example, team A with 1200 points, team B with 1000. Does that mean that team A has a 20% better chance than 50/50 of winning?
    Unknown008's Avatar
    Unknown008 Posts: 8,076, Reputation: 723
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    #3

    Jun 8, 2010, 11:58 AM

    Unfortunately, more information would be welcome.

    If each point gives the same odds of winning, then, I can do something.

    The total points is play are: 1000 + 1200 = 2200

    So, the odds that your team win are 1200/2000 = 60%, a little more than his team winning, which is 40%
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    KingsX Posts: 231, Reputation: 10
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    #4

    Jun 9, 2010, 09:16 AM

    That's what I was thinking. If I made a ceiling on the points. Lets say that team A has 1200 points out of a possible 2000 and so no. So team A is 60% and team B is 50%. So would team A have a 10% better chance of winning?
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    Unknown008 Posts: 8,076, Reputation: 723
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    #5

    Jun 9, 2010, 11:12 AM

    A better 20% chance according to the way I did it.

    Remember that probability add up to one. 100% - 60% = 40%

    Now, if there is also the possibility that both of you win, and both of you lose, then, your chances of winning will go down ;)
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    KingsX Posts: 231, Reputation: 10
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    #6

    Jun 11, 2010, 01:33 PM

    Yes, I follow. Add the points together, calculate what percentage of the total each team has, and then there you go. Thanks!
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